![]() ![]() Until that impact kicks in, and corporate profit margins take a big hit, a U.S. Markowska also said the recent drop in commodity prices and inflation expectations isn’t a result of the Fed’s interest rate hikes, as central bank policies usually require some time to impact the economy. But I don’t think it’s right around the corner.” “It will be the price that we’ll have to pay, at some point, to get back to 2% inflation. “I don’t buy this idea that a recession is imminent, but I do think a recession is inevitable,” she said. And most economists expect the rate hikes will continue. The central bank has raised rates four times this year in an attempt to reduce elevated consumer prices, including an outsize 75-basis-point hike in July. inflation, meaning the Federal Reserve will be able to slow the pace of its aggressive interest rate hikes through the end of the year. Markowska went on to argue that this week’s CPI data will show that June was the peak for U.S. That would be quite the turnaround after GDP contracted in the first and second quarters, leaving many to question whether the U.S. That should “set the stage” for a rebound in consumer spending, causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise over 3% in the third quarter, she said. ![]() Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), moved to a fresh four-decade high of 9.1% in June, but Markowska believes falling commodity prices and healing supply chains will help to reduce sky-high consumer prices over the next three to six months. “It’s time to scrap the recession narrative and replace it with ‘stronger for longer.’ Stagflation is out, Goldilocks is in,” she wrote in a research note. will avoid a 1970s stagflation rerun over the coming quarters. But on Monday, Jefferies’ chief financial economist, Aneta Markowska, argued that the U.S. ![]()
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